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Wind SeiryuuTier 2
at Capybara Cards Store Championship
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 10.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.8% | -14.7 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.3% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 50.4% | +0.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.7% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.1% | +0.0 |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 5.1% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 79.0% | +21.7 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 36.6% | -12.8 |
| Fire Oblation | 5.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.4% | -13.8 |
| Water Aetherwing | 5.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.9% | +7.9 |
| Wind Allies | 5.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 35.0% | -14.4 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.7% | -5.3 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 2.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.4% | -4.1 |
| Water Genbu | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.3% | -6.0 |
| Wind Arcane | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Dawn of Ashes | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.5% | -21.5 |
Decklists · 6 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 5 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 5 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Displace, Stolen Chance, Brisk Windtrotter. Losers more often ran: Excalibur, Cleansing Light, Enfeebling Orb, Sunblessed Gazelle.
Show all 41 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 21 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Displace | +0.60 | 4 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stolen Chance | +0.60 | 3 | 0 | 2 | |
| Brisk Windtrotter | +0.60 | 4 | 1 | 0 | |
| Excalibur, Cleansing Light | -0.60 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.40 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Forest Cake | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 3 | |
| Stifling Trap | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 3 | |
| Harness Lightning | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 3 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | +0.40 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Annul Spell | +0.40 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Diablerie | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Arrow Trap | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 4 | |
| Reclaim | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Aesan Protector | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 4 | |
| Enfeebling Orb | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |
| Expel the Departed | +0.20 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Sunblessed Gazelle | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |
| Winds of Destiny | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Windmill Engineer | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 4 | |
| Tricastles of Lucenia | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lightweaver's Assault | -0.20 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Fairy Whispers | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |
| Spellward Scepter | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dream Fairy | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 2 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Royal Oathguard | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Yuan Shao, Crown General | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cry for Help | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Topsy Decree | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scout the Land | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Uther, Illustrious King | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Orb of Sealing | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Longtail Grovesward | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Beseech the Winds | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Purifying Thurible | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 3 | |
| Innervate Agility | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 3 | |
| Reveal the Hidden | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |